The Right State

A fragile cease-fire holds over the Middle East following the Israeli-Hezbollah war.  This conflict was different from any of the other conflicts the IDF has been involved in.  From the beginning the IDF and Israeli leadership conducted this war as if they believed it would be as easy as the last time.  There is an old military axiom which states that the losers of the last war learn from it and change tactics; for the winners, it worked last time so it should work again this time.  World War II was conducted in this same fashion.  Germany whom lost WWI changed tactics for WWII.  Trench warfare did not serve them very well so they came up with the ‘Blitzkrieg,’ a fast way of attacking.  The French for their part were content with trench warfare since it worked last time.  As a result the French were quickly overrun by the German war machine.  This war between Israel and Hezbollah is no different.  The terrorists obviously learned from the mistakes of the past as did the rulers of Iran and Syria who supplied them with arms.  As a result the IDF was surprised by the resistance of Hezbollah.  The terrorists have consistently been one step ahead in this conflict.  Israel has not only been one step behind, but have shown an unwillingness to change tactics until the very end.  By then it was too late, Hezbollah had already achieved a moral victory in the Middle East by standing up to the vaunted IDF.

In discussing the war between the two sides, the issue of who won will always creep into the debate.  While not relevant to the discussion of who won, there should be some talk of how each side conducted the war.  Hezbollah for their part were fighting all out in a total war.  They launched rocket barrages on both military and civilian targets indiscriminately.  They wanted to win.  The IDF was fighting a handicap match with one fighting arm and one running leg tied behind them.  The attacks by the Israeli forces were conducted to minimize civilian casualties shown by the dropping of leaflets into the target areas, by calling for civilians on the phone to leave, by stopping a bombing campaign when news of a high number of civilian deaths occurred.  At the same time the Israeli leadership for firm hand on the reins of the IDF, not allowing them to conduct the same type of total war the Hezbollah was conducting.

When discussing who won, it is interesting to see if we are comparing oranges to oranges or apples to oranges, but not necessary.  Whether or not Israeli was in a handicap match is unimportant, whether each side achieved their objectives is.  In comparison this war was much like the American Civil War where the North needed to defeat the South to win while the South only had to not lose.  In Israel’s case they did not achieve their objectives, they did not defeat Hezbollah.  They are weakened but not defeated.  Hezbollah for their part has managed to fight back and remain a force in Southern Lebanon.  So Hezbollah won this latest battle with Israel.  Hopefully Israel has learned their lesson.  The next time, I expect the IDF to go into Lebanon, Iran, Syria or whoever full bore.  I would imagine the next time there will be no debate as to who won.

One of the questions remaining in the aftermath of this war is what has been accomplished?  The short answer is, not much.  Hezbollah is still in southern Lebanon to renew their pursuit of the extinction of Israel.  The Lebanese government has steadfastly denied that they will disarm Hezbollah.  UNIFIL has never kept the peace, nor will they succeed now.  Iran and Syria are still consistently arming their proxies.  All Israel has accomplished is to merely postpone the inevitable.  Eventually Israel will have to take on Iran who has admitted to supplying the terrorists with all their weaponry.  So not much has been accomplished in this war.

Knowing that Iran is the one country who is instigating terror around the world, hopefully the US will have a President who will side with their friends and seek an end to the GWOT by siding with Israel against this terrorist regime.

Tags: Terrorism, Iran, War //