The Right State

This op-ed from the Jerusalem Post very articulately nails down why the UN and some in the west see the current conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in different way.  The difference can be likened to whether each side is playing by a particular set of previously agreed upon rules, or if the conflict is a matter of life or death with the rules thrown out the window.

Strategic interactions are of two main types. They either resemble a “game,” with each side making moves according to tacitly agreed evolving rules, or constitute a life-or-death “kill or be killed” conflict.

Thus, the cold war evolved rapidly into a “game,” with the exception of the Cuba missile crisis, when extreme American measures were necessary to reestablish relatively stable rules of interaction.

In contrast, the confrontation with Hitler was of the life-or-death type. The Western misreading of Hitler as a rule-following player - or at least as amenable to becoming such a player after “reasonable demands” were satisfied - resulted in very high costs. (snip)

Contemporary Western values, culture, economies, and politics are dense with factors that distort reality, making this critical task more difficult. Among these are the ill-founded beliefs that human beings are sure to prefer liberal democracy given a real choice, and that material interests necessarily reduce fanaticism.

Other Western handicaps are the lack of readiness to kill and be killed, even when doing so will likely to save many lives in the future; an unwarranted trust in partly outdated rules of international law; striving for so wide a consensus as to make effective action impossible; and worrying about energy sources and markets.

Some learning from mistakes does take place, especially in the US and England, though it happens the hard way - being hit by terrorism and facing obviously “evil” states. Still, the dominant trend, especially in Europe, is to cling to optimistic images of reality approximating the game model, despite stubborn facts to the contrary.

So when Hezbollah attacked, the Israeli response was considered an over-reaction and not proportionate.  The same things were said when the US entered Afghanistan, after all, we only lost 3000 people.  The US and Great Britain are just about the only countries to know civilization is in a life or death struggle with radical Islam.

ISRAEL, however, cannot permit itself such a short-sighted path of action. Hizbullah and Hamas, as supported by Syria and Iran, are life-or-death enemies likely, with time, to become more dangerous rather than to lose their fanatical nature. Therefore, Israeli counteraction must achieve the destructive capacity necessary to drastically reduce the growing threat; and to motivate bystanders to act against the fanatics and deter their supporters.

In particular, in view of the declared nature of the present Iranian regime as a total enemy and its growing power, including emerging nuclear capabilities, Israel must build (to be more exact, rebuild) credible deterrence, based in part on “rationality irrationality.” This requires a partial image of willingness and capacity to react unpredictably and with extreme violence to life-and-death dangers, even at high costs to itself. (emphasis added by TRS)

Harsh measures against Hizbullah and Hamas are a way to build such an image, in addition to being justified in themselves - all the more so as Hizbullah’s initial attack was probably designed to test Israeli determination.

IN MORAL terms, Israel confronts the tragic choice of either engaging now in a large-scale action, despite significant human costs, or wait until a much more costly war becomes unavoidable.

You can bet if Israel does not confront Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, and Syria now, they will have to do so later at a much higher cost in terms of lives lost.  Israel understands the dangers of radical Islam, for the most part the US understands too.  Most of Europe does not understand.  Of course they come by this honestly.  Even with the dangers of WWII looming, the leaders sought to appease Hitler.  It was not until he had conquered a good portion of Europe that they finally understood the danger this madman represented.  Europe has a history of appeasement, and in WWII it almost cost them their freedom.  And now they do not understand the danger radical Islam represents to a free world.  In the end it may be the United States who pulls the world’s chestnuts out of the fire once again.

Tags: Democracy, Iran, President Bush, War by Chuck
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I do not know how the US could handle the situation in Lebanon any better.  Rice has flown to Beirut in support of the fledgling government and has been encouraging Syria to stop supporting Hezbollah through the influence of moderate Muslim states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made an unannounced visit to Beirut on Monday in a show of support for that country’s weakened democracy, which is struggling to contain the fighting between the Hezbollah militia and Israel.

Rice planned to meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Faud Saniora, other leaders of his government and members of parliament about the surge in fighting along the southern border in the last two weeks.

Her visit is intended to make a show of support and concern for both the Saniora government and the Lebanese people, administration officials said. She also plans to talk with Lebanese leaders about how the central government can gain control of the entire country.

And that is the real problem; the government of Lebanon is too weak to exert control over their entire country allowing terrorist groups like Hezbollah to operate as a quasi-autonomous government in the southern region.  Exploiting this weakness, Hezbollah, until recently, has attacked Israel with impunity.

With the IDF attacking into Lebanon to go after the terrorists, Condoleezza Rice is reluctant to call a halt to hostilities.  After all, for the last couple of years the US and Great Britain have been the only countries to really go after the terrorists.  So Rice has to play a balancing act of allowing Israel to proceed as long as they do not undermine the pro-west government of Lebanon.

At the same time the Bush administration is working to detach Syria from its ally Iran.  I am not sure if this is more of a move to separate and conquer or if its main purpose is to further isolate Iran.  Either way, we have some of the more moderate Muslim countries helping us out.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are working to entice Syria to end support for Hezbollah, a move that is central to resolving the conflict in Lebanon and unhitching Damascus from its alliance with Iran, the Shiite Muslim guerrillas’ other main backer.

Arab diplomats in Cairo said the United States had signaled a willingness to re-engage Syria through Washington’s encouragement of the Egyptians and Saudis to lean on Damascus to stop backing Hezbollah.

With Jordan, Egypt, and Israel all confirming the existence of Iranian troops in southern Lebanon, it seems likely Washington is trying to isolate the Islamic regime, probably saving them to deal with later. 

The bodies of Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers who were killed by the Israeli army in Lebanon have been transported to Syria and flown to Tehran, senior Lebanese political sources told WorldNetDaily.

The information was confirmed by Israeli and Egyptian security officials. It follows scores of reports the past few days Iranian soldiers have been aiding Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon in their attacks against Israel, including help with the firing of rockets into Israeli population centers.  (snip)

Jordanian officials told WND they are “100 percent sure” Iranian Revolutionary Guard unit soldiers have fired rockets into Israel. They also said the Syrian army has provided Hezbollah with intelligence information on the locations of strategic Israeli targets to aid in Hezbollah rocket fire.

Any evidence of foreign interference by Iran and Syria should be displayed for all to see.  Syria could possibly come clean by ending their relationship with Iran.  As the smaller partner, President Bashar al-Assad can claim he sent help to Hezbollah at the request of Iran.  Iran on the other hand is a different matter.  The ruling mullahs believe they are supposed to export the Islamic Revolution.  Until the people of Iran rise up against the autocracy, not much will change.  The country will continue to support Hezbollah and other terrorist groups until a regime change occurs.

By sending Sec. Rice to Lebanon now, President Bush can exploit this window of opportunity to show the US wants peace in the region while giving Israel enough time to wipe out as many of the terrorists as they can.  Furthermore the trip can demonstrate to the Lebanese government that we still support them.  Either way, I see this trip as a win-win for the US.

Tags: Democracy, Iran, President Bush, Politics, War by Chuck
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The people of Iran sometimes act like someone who just bought a car from a used car salesman.  When they wake up in the morning to view the new car and it turns out they had not bought was what they were promised.  During the 1979 Iranian revolution which overthrew the Shah of Iran, the people wanted and demanded more rights and a democratically elected government.  Since then, the run of the mill people of Iran are not very satisfied with what was become of those promises.  For the last few years, the mullahs have kept an ever watchful eye on everyday Iranians and with good reason.  The people still want more rights, not a more restrictive theocracy.

With the turmoil in Lebanon, you would think the Iranians would want to do anything they can to help their Islamic brethren.  Not so.  It turns out most of the Iranian people want their money to stay in Iran to take care of Iranian problems.

There is a huge amount of anger here about what is happening in Lebanon, but it is not all the result of Israeli bombs, missiles and artillery.

“Of course I am angry,’’ said Hamid Akbari, 30, a deliveryman. “All our income is going to Palestine and Hezbollah.”

For decades, Iran has been Hezbollah’s prime patron, helping create it as a Shiite Muslim militia and then nurture it with money, expertise and weapons. But now that Hezbollah is in the midst of full-blown fighting with Israel, Iranian officials have been adamant in insisting that they had nothing to do with the events that set off the crisis. (snip)

In interviews in central Tehran Saturday, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.

“We Iranians have a saying,” said Ali Reza Moradi, 35, a portrait artist who works in a small booth downtown. “We should save our own house first and then save the mosque. A lot of people think this way. The government should help its people first, and then help the people in Lebanon.”

Maybe some of the anger in Iran will be directed not at Israel, but on the ruling mullahs who continuously defy the west with its nuclear program and its support of terrorist groups.  Iran can not hope to match the US dollar for dollar in this crisis.  As Iran sends more of their hard earned money into this conflict, the anger towards the Iranian government will likely grow.  I hope this is the beginning of the end for the Islamic theocracy in Iran.

Tags: Democracy, Iran, War by Chuck
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