Biased Poll Numbers?
Powerline has the latest news on the economy which by the way is great, including:
Unemployment down to 4.7%.
211,000 new payroll jobs added in March.
Economic growth has now continued for 17 consecutive quarters.
These are great numbers. This is the best unemployment numbers for the United States in the last three decades. Powerline continues with this question.
One thing puzzles me: how can consumer confidence be soaring, while at the same time 59% said in a recent poll that they disapprove of President Bush’s “handling of the economy?”
There is an eerie disconnect between what respondents say in polls about the economy and what the economy is actually doing. I have an explanation for the difference. In several polls I have seen the there is an over sampling of democrats and an under sampling of republicans. There will be some people who say views on the economy is not political, but as we move closer to the 2006 elections the polls themselves are being politicized as both democrats and republicans vie for an advantage. Any poll about President Bush is inherently political.
Ankle Biting Pundits discusses this same issue of the over sampling error.
Ipsos is running their by-now-routine “Bush reaches new low!” teaser regarding its new poll. While it is true that Bush & Co. can’t buy a decent news day, this poll is really more reflective of what Democrats think of the president, not what Americans think of the president.
Democrat-leaning respondents outnumber Republican-leaning respondents by 10 percentage points in this poll. What Ipsos is doing is unconscionable – playing with the Dems’ heads like that.
After looking at the IPSOS poll itself, Ankle Biting Pundits is correct. Why is IPSOS doing this? Who knows, but here is the proof from IPSOS website.
Republican ………………………………… 26
Democrat…………………………………… 31
Independent ………………………………. 34
And then further down IPSOS includes political leanings reflecting a bias on their part.
Strongly Republican …………………….. 14
Moderately Republican…………………. 26
Definitely Independent/neither……….. 9
Moderately Democrat …………………… 32
Strongly Democrat……………………….. 18
Refused/not sure………………………….. 1
Total Republican ………………………. 40
Total Democrat …………………………. 50
What IPSOS is doing is wrong. In the 2004 general election, people were divided evenly between Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. A week ago there was national news when the Democrats gained a one point advantage over Republicans in party identification. So why is IPSOS doing this? Perhaps they are trying to influence politics and politicians. Had the pollsters questioned an equal number of Democrats and Republican, I am sure the numbers would be a lot different. Seems like you can not trust any of the polls. Hopefull the American people will see through these transparent attempt to influence politics.
I would add that it would be rather simplistic to stop here. Politics would only explain one part of the disparity between how people feel about the economy and what the economy is actually doing. When it comes to the economy people tend to internalize and to just look at their own situation and think things could be better. Sure they could. Gas prices are high which is what I think most people look at when making decisions about how President Bush is doing on the economy. This is rather short sighted on the part of the respondents. But what do you do?
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